Trump Authorizes Blackwell Export NVIDIA China - AI Reversal

A major turning point is emerging in Sino-American technological relations. President Donald Trump recently signaled that he would consider authorizing NVIDIA to export its Blackwell artificial intelligence chips to China, marking a spectacular reversal in the technology embargo policy maintained by Washington since 2022. This development, if realized, would redefine the geopolitical balance of the semiconductor sector and have major repercussions for NVIDIA, currently excluded from the Chinese market.

During statements made aboard Air Force One, Trump described the Blackwell architecture as a "super-duper chip," referring to its remarkable computing capacity for generative artificial intelligence. The American president indicated that he would discuss this possibility with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a planned meeting at the time. These remarks carry crucial importance for NVIDIA, whose position in China has deteriorated considerably over recent years.

NVIDIA's current situation in China illustrates the devastating impact of the American technology embargo. The company, which controlled ninety-five percent of the Chinese market for artificial intelligence accelerators just a few years ago, now holds no market share in the country. The Chinese government has recently prohibited its enterprises from importing NVIDIA chips, fearing the implications of dependence on an American supplier and preferring to promote national technological solutions like Huawei and its Ascend processors.

The Trump administration is considering proposing a degraded version of the Blackwell chip to China. According to the plans discussed, this variant would reduce maximum performance by thirty to fifty percent compared to the complete Blackwell. NVIDIA reportedly developed an intermediate version called B30A or B30, based on the Blackwell architecture but limited in capabilities. This chip would offer a theoretical balance between American national security requirements and NVIDIA's commercial interests.

The technical specifications of the B30 chip destined for the Chinese market represent a subtle compromise. The artificial intelligence accelerator would retain approximately eighty percent of Blackwell's maximum computing power, but would lack certain advanced features such as high-performance wide bandwidth memory and multi-GPU interconnection capabilities. These limitations seek to discourage military applications while maintaining viable commercial utility for civilian data centers.

The underlying geopolitical stakes are considerable. According to expert analysts, authorizing the export of degraded Blackwell chips would drastically reduce the American technological advantage in artificial intelligence. Tim Fist, co-author of specialized studies on the subject, warns that exporting B30A chips would carry the risk of substantially reducing the primary advantage the United States currently holds over China in artificial intelligence. In worst-case scenarios, China could surpass the United States in artificial intelligence computing power by 2026.

Analysis of different scenarios reveals the magnitude of the strategic dilemma. If no powerful chips were exported to China next year, the United States would have thirty times more artificial intelligence computing power than China. Conversely, if Washington authorized the export of B30A chips and comparable technologies from other American companies, China could close its gap by 2026. Even in a median scenario, where only a small quantity of chips were exported, the American advantage would be reduced to just a factor of four.

The debate timing occurs in a tense commercial context. Trump also mentioned a transactional arrangement whereby NVIDIA would accept sharing fifteen percent of its Chinese sales revenue with the American Treasury in exchange for authorization to sell less powerful chips than the previous H20 model. This exchange formula reflects a new approach where technology policies are intrinsically linked to broader trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

Jensen Huang, NVIDIA's chief executive, has long advocated for access to the Chinese market, arguing that technological isolation encourages China to develop independent solutions. His strategic argument posits that maintaining China's dependence on American technologies would be preferable to forcing Beijing to develop completely autonomous capabilities. Huang stated that NVIDIA remained "one hundred percent out of China" in the current situation but remained optimistic about prospects for market reopening under a Trump administration more favorable to trade negotiations.

The historical context of American semiconductor embargoes dates back to 2022. At that time, Washington initially restricted exports of A100 and H100 chips, crucial for training massive artificial intelligence models. In 2023, the United States imposed additional restrictions on more NVIDIA semiconductors destined for China. These controls aimed to reduce China's potential technological advantage in the strategic field of artificial intelligence.

The reaction from the American Senate to Trump's statements was highly critical. Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and eleven Democratic senators urged Trump not to lift restrictions on American artificial intelligence chips and advanced technologies. They emphasize that maintaining technological advantage remains vital for American national security in the face of China's rising power.

The evolution of NVIDIA's stock price reflects the hopes raised by Trump's statements. The share surged by eight point five percent during Asian trading after the announcement that Trump would discuss Blackwell chips with Xi Jinping. Investors perceive this possible authorization as a major commercial opportunity for NVIDIA, potentially generating billions of dollars in additional revenue.

Chinese technological alternatives add a layer of complexity to the debate. Huawei is progressing in developing its Ascend processor series, presented as viable competitors to NVIDIA accelerators. However, Chinese engineers acknowledge that Huawei chips still present weaknesses in terms of software ecosystem and memory bandwidth. DeepSeek, a Chinese champion of generative artificial intelligence, even had to return to NVIDIA after encountering persistent technical problems with Huawei processors so severe they forced the cancellation of a critical version launch.

The Blackwell architecture itself embodies a major technological advance. This chip incorporates Gate-All-Around FETs transistors, Super Power Rail, and revolutionary backside power delivery. These innovations enable increased performance while reducing power consumption, improvements critical for artificial intelligence data centers facing growing energy challenges.

The development of degraded chips for the Chinese market raises intriguing technical and economic questions. Experts note that the price of a reduced B30A chip remains approximately equivalent to that of a complete Blackwell. China could theoretically purchase two units of B30A chips and obtain performance equivalent to a single complete Blackwell, at the same overall cost. This dynamic suggests that technological limitations would represent only a moderate barrier to Chinese artificial intelligence computing power accumulation.

The implications for the European and Asian technology sectors are also worth considering. A relaxation of American controls on semiconductors could trigger a cascade of trade renegotiations with Washington's other strategic partners, affecting global supply chains and established technological alliances.

The date of conclusion of negotiations between Trump and Xi Jinping therefore remains closely watched by the global technology industry. The final decision on authorizing Blackwell chip exports represents far more than a simple commercial transaction: it symbolizes the rebalancing of technological powers on a planetary scale and the redefinition of parameters in Sino-American artificial intelligence competition.

Sources:

• CNBC, "Trump open to Nvidia selling downgraded Blackwell AI chip to China"

• Fortune, "U.S.-China chip war: How Trump's Nvidia-AMD deal has redefined Washington's export control policy"

• CNN Business, "The world's biggest company got caught in the middle of Trump's AI war with China »